LAB #3863 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.3% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.5% to 33.3% (+0.8pp, n=1438) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION phase filter to the current live window would have blocked the two rizzy5m SHORTs on NZDUSD (loss) and XAUUSD (loss), and the rizzy7m EURJPY LONG (loss). It would also have blocked the rizzy7m USDCHF LONG (loss) and the wkjudas USDJPY SHORT (loss). That removes 5 losing trades out of 10, leaving the two wins (GBPUSD SHORT, EURUSD LONG) and three open/rejected trades intact. Expected win rate on closed trades jumps from 2/8 (25%) to 2/3 (66.7%), and PnL improves by roughly +3.2R (assuming average loss = 1R). However, the filter would also have blocked the open AUDUSD SHORT and NZDUSD LONG — both currently unrealized — so the live delta is partly speculative. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +0.8pp win-rate gain (32.5%→33.3%) is marginal and likely within noise Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com