The Nexus of Climate Change, Renewable Energy, and Agricultural Development in Morocco

Abstract Climate change is regarded as one of the most pressing issues confronting humanity in the 21st century. Rising atmospheric temperatures, accompanied by declining precipitation, are exerting significant pressure on water resources and agricultural productivity. Morocco’s agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate variability and structural energy constraints. This study empirically investigates the short- and long-run impacts of climate factors and renewable energy on agricultural development in Morocco over the period 1990–2024 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach. The dependent variable is agricultural value added (GDPA), and the explanatory variables include cereal production (AP), renewable energy consumption (RE), annual precipitation (PRE), mean temperature (TMP), and foreign direct investment in agriculture (AFDI). Bounds test results confirm a statistically significant long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. The results reveal that bounds tests confirm a statistically significant long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. In the long run, renewable energy consumption and agricultural FDI are positively and significantly associated with agricultural GDP, while mean temperature is negatively associated with agricultural GDP. Annual precipitation is statistically insignificant in the long run, consistent with structural irrigation buffering. In the short run, cereal production, renewable energy, precipitation, and temperature are positively associated with agricultural output. The error correction term indicates that approximately 79 percent of any short-run deviation from long-run equilibrium is corrected within one year. These findings carry actionable implications for Morocco’s climate-adaptive agricultural policy, including accelerating solar-powered irrigation under the Generation Green strategy, integrating drought- and heat-resistant crop varieties into the National Adaptation Plan, and strengthening the regulatory and water-use frameworks that govern agricultural foreign direct investment.