Ocean acidification pushes Mediterranean marine calcifiers toward a tipping point

Abstract The increasing emission of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is altering seawater chemistry, lowering ocean pH and threatening marine biodiversity. Predicting how marine biota will be adversely affected by ocean acidification (OA) remains a key challenge. Here, we document that functional morphological traits offer a more robust metric of calcifier sensitivity to OA than taxonomic diversity alone. Using benthic foraminifera from a Mediterranean CO 2 vent system, we identify an empirically derived pH threshold beyond which community structure and function shift markedly. Applying this threshold to end-of-century projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 reveals that most western Mediterranean coastal zones will exceed critical acidification levels by 2090–2100. These results highlight the susceptibility of the Mediterranean coastal ecosystems to OA under high-emission scenarios, underscoring the risk of widespread biodiversity loss and impaired ecosystem functioning. Our approach provides a trait-based framework for forecasting ecosystem responses to OA and informing adaptation strategies in climate-sensitive marine regions.