Spatiotemporal Patterns and Multifactor Driving Mechanisms of Soybean Production in Northeast China (2000–2024)

Ensuring stable soybean supply requires understanding how production patterns evolve and whether policy consistently dominates production dynamics. This study examines 36 prefecture-level units in Northeast China from 2000 to 2024 by integrating production growth decomposition, the production concentration index, center-of-gravity and standard deviational ellipse models, spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I), and the geographical detector. The results indicate the following: (1) Production fluctuated upward, with its spatial core consolidating in the northern high-latitude zone and the regional centroid moving 123.3 km northeastward overall. Concentration increased more than sown-area concentration, indicating a gradual, spatially uneven recovery in yield contributions rather than a completed shift to yield-led growth. (2) Spatial differentiation was fundamentally governed by hydrothermal endowments rather than monotonic policy dominance. Annual mean temperature consistently exhibited the strongest independent explanatory power (reaching q = 0.39 in 2024), followed by agricultural machinery power (q = 0.22) and fertilizer input (q = 0.24). (3) The influence of agricultural fiscal support intensity was stage-specific and conditional (significant in 2010 and 2020, but waning to q = 0.14 in 2024), functioning primarily through synergistic interactions with natural endowments and input levels. Consequently, regional soybean layout reflects a multifactor interplay where climatic suitability sets the production ceiling, while factor configuration and targeted fiscal incentives regulate localized capacity. Policy interventions should shift from uniform area expansion subsidies toward differentiated, climate-resilient input optimization in core and marginal regions.