Digital Transformation and Low-Carbon Transition Risk in Manufacturing Firms: A Green Innovation Perspective

Promoting the digital transformation of manufacturing and reducing the risks of the low-carbon transition are necessary steps to achieve carbon peaking and neutrality goals and drive all-round green development. Using publicly listed manufacturing enterprises in China from 2010 to 2024 as the research sample, this paper empirically examines the effect of digital transformation on corporate vulnerability to low-carbon transition and identifies the corresponding transmission paths. Digital transformation will reduce the risk of the low-carbon transition for manufacturing companies. Green innovation provides a necessary path for digital transformation to mitigate the aforementioned risk. After adding another category to the classification of innovation drivers, this study found that substantive green innovation significantly mediated the effect, but strategic green innovation did not. Therefore, digital transformation is likely to drive high-quality substantive changes rather than a large number of symbolic ones. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the risk-reducing effect of digital transformation is more pronounced in companies with a higher proportion of skilled technical staff, chair–CEO separation and those facing looser financing constraints. The above results provide empirical support and policy references for promoting the synchronous digital-green development of manufacturing enterprises and for identifying and mitigating low-carbon transition risks.