Spatiotemporal Variations, Trade-Offs and Synergies, and Socio-Ecological Driving Factors of Ecosystem Services in the Poyang Lake Basin: Implications for Differentiated Ecological Management

Due to the combined effects of climate change and intensified human activities, large lake basins are often at risk of severe degradation of ecosystem services (ESs). To develop scientifically rigorous and effective strategies for managing ESs, this study focuses on the Poyang Lake Basin (PYLB) as the research area. By integrating Spearman correlation analysis, geographically weighted regression (GWR), optimal parameters-based geographical detector, and self-organizing map, we established a comprehensive framework integrating multi-period ES assessment, relationship identification, driving factors analysis, and spatial management zoning. The main findings are as follows: (1) Across the three study years, food production (FP) was 33.99% higher in 2020 than in 2000, whereas carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ) were 1.34% and 4.39% lower, respectively. In contrast, soil conservation (SC), water yield (WY), and water conservation (WC) exhibited the fluctuating changes. (2) Synergistic relationships predominated among CS, HQ, SC, WY, and WC, whereas FP exhibited predominantly trade-off relationships with the other ESs. Although most pairwise ES relationships weakened during the study period, GWR revealed pronounced spatial nonstationarity and directional reversals in the FP-WC, FP-WY, and SC-HQ relationships. (3) Land use and cover change, elevation, slope, and precipitation showed relatively high explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of ESs, while interactions among socio-ecological driving factors generally exhibited greater explanatory power than individual factors. (4) Based on the characteristics and spatiotemporal variation patterns of the five ecosystem service bundles identified, targeted management measures were formulated. These findings offer a foundation for scientific ecosystem management and sustainable development in the PYLB.