Unlocking Latent Cycling Demand in Car-Dependent Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: A Weighted Multi-Perspective Planning Framework

Global transitions toward sustainable mobility often encounter structural and behavioural barriers in high-income, automobile-dependent metropolises. This study investigates the behavioural factors and planning preferences influencing bicycle infrastructure development in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia—a city defined by car-oriented planning and a hyper-arid climate. To capture a comprehensive perspective, a structured survey was conducted among potential cyclists (n = 988), current cyclists (n = 52), and planning experts (n = 6). A key methodological contribution of this research is the development of an empirically weighted composite framework, utilizing a 1–5 evaluation scale, which quantifies user priorities to identify the thresholds necessary for activating latent demand. The findings reveal critical disparities: while current cyclists prioritize connectivity on arterial roads, potential users—representing the vast latent majority—exhibit a decisive preference (60.6% of n = 988) for protected, quiet neighbourhood streets. Furthermore, 81.7% of potential cyclists expressed a willingness to adopt cycling if physical safety concerns are mitigated. Traffic congestion (17.58%) and pavement quality (17.49%) emerged as the primary weighted determinants for infrastructure suitability within the composite index. Additionally, localized thermal stress and socio-cultural factors (such as traditional attire) significantly influence the temporal and operational requirements of the network. These factors may constrain cycling during periods of intense heat and increase the need for route-level adaptations, particularly adequate shading and infrastructure that supports more comfortable cycling conditions during suitable times of the day. The study also identifies a significant uncertainty gap in bike-sharing adoption (41.4%), representing a major opportunity for policy intervention through targeted bicycle-metro integration around public transit hubs. By bridging the gap between technical feasibility and public readiness, this research proposes a user-centric decision-making framework. These results provide a robust, data-driven foundation for developing context-sensitive cycling networks in car-centric environments, demonstrating that strategic, human-centric design can effectively unlock significant latent demand despite climatic and infrastructural challenges.