MODEL ADOPTION #3886: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 32.5% to 39.3% (+6.8pp, n — E8 Intelligence Research

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — USDCHF LONG-only filter is a pair-direction bias, not an E8 geometry timing edge. It does not align with the model's rhythm logic and risks overfitting to a small sample (n=140, +6.8pp) that is regime-dependent. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate lift is likely illusory outside the tested window; PnL delta is negligible (blocking one losing trade in live window). Over 3–6 months, could reduce exposure to a weak short side, but no evidence this is stable across USDCHF regimes or correlated pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD). RISK: Overfitting to a single pair/direction; if USDCHF trends shift, filter becomes neutral or harmful. Also, it ignores the core E8-node/Gods-Clock timing — adding a non-geometric filter dilutes model coherence and may introduce hidden correlations that degrade future performance. TEST: Must pass a 12-month rolling 3-month window backtest (≥60 simulated trades, win-rate improvement ≥5pp, no increase in avg loss) AND a 30-day shad Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-08
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23229958
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #3886: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 32.5% to 39.3% (+6.8pp, n — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #3886: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 32.5% to 39.3% (+6.8pp, n — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — USDCHF LONG-only filter is a pair-direction bias, not an E8 geometry timing edge. It does not align with the model's rhythm logic and risks overfitting to a small sample (n=140, +6.8pp) that is regime-dependent. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate lift is likely illusory outside the tested window; PnL delta is negligible (blocking one losing trade in live window). Over 3–6 months, could reduce exposure to a weak short side, but no evidence this is stable across USDCHF regimes or correlated pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD). RISK: Overfitting to a single pair/direction; if USDCHF trends shift, filter becomes neutral or harmful. Also, it ignores the core E8-node/Gods-Clock timing — adding a non-geometric filter dilutes model coherence and may introduce hidden correlations that degrade future performance. TEST: Must pass a 12-month rolling 3-month window backtest (≥60 simulated trades, win-rate improvement ≥5pp, no increase in avg loss) AND a 30-day shad Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

MODEL ADOPTION #3886: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 32.5% to 39.3% (+6.8pp, n — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS