Revisit Intention Under Climate Risk in Island Tourism: Structural and Configurational Evidence from PLS-SEM and fsQCA

Climate risk increasingly shapes tourists’ judgements of safety, service continuity, and the viability of future trips to island destinations. Existing research has established the deterrent role of tourism risk, while giving less attention to how destination response capacity, climate information, and trust combine to preserve revisit intention. This study develops a threat-coping framework linking perceived climate risk (PCR), perceived destination climate resilience (PDCR), tourism climate-service usefulness (UTCS), destination trust (DT), and revisit intention (RI). An on-site survey of 480 Chinese tourists visiting Phuket was analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). PLS-SEM showed a negative association between PCR and RI and positive associations for PDCR, UTCS, and DT. Trust had the strongest direct association with RI and partially transmitted the effects of both destination response resources. The structural model explained 74.6% of the variance in RI. fsQCA found no individually necessary condition and identified three sufficient configurations for each outcome. High RI arose from a resilience-trust route, a low-risk dual-resource route, and a low-risk climate-service-trust route. Low RI arose when low trust coincided with the joint absence of both response resources or when high risk combined with a deficit in either resource. Recalibration at the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles reproduced all six configurations. These findings show that tourists evaluate climate-sensitive island destinations through distinct combinations of threat, operational capacity, decision support, and relational confidence. The integrated evidence extends demand-side research on destination adaptation and supports differentiated strategies for resilience visibility, actionable climate communication, and trust-sensitive visitor protection of sustainable development in island destination.