Effects of Foreign Aid on Asia–Pacific Total Fertility Rates

ABSTRACT Amid persistently declining and uneven fertility trends across the Asia–Pacific, whether foreign aid actively shapes regional fertility behaviour remains an open empirical question. This study investigates the net effects of sector‐specific foreign aid on total fertility rates (TFRs) across 35 developing Asia–Pacific countries during 2002–2023. Utilising a quantile regression approach, we show that the demographic effects of aid depend strongly on a recipient nationʼs baseline fertility and macroeconomic environment. In low‐ and medium‐fertility settings, broad education and health aid function as household resource subsidies that relax budget constraints, shifting the quantity–quality trade‐off towards child quantity. By contrast, population and reproductive health aid reduces fertility in low‐fertility settings. Transportation aid, meanwhile, acts as a structural facilitator that increases TFR exclusively in medium‐fertility settings. These dynamics are heavily moderated by economic growth and labour market uncertainty. Overall, our findings suggest that foreign aid architecture in the Asia–Pacific should be counter‐cyclical and demographically calibrated.