Russia at the global food market

Russia maintains significant positions in global food markets; however, from H2 2026 onwards, stability of these positions has become increasingly dependent on export logistics. Between January and July, the value of agricultural exports rose by 24.9%, matching the value of imports, yet constraints in the Sea of Azov–Black Sea basin pose a risk of shipment delays and a potential loss of export revenue. The downward revision of Russian wheat export forecasts in September reflects deteriorating prospects for the grain sector. At the same time, widening discount of Russian wheat vs. global benchmarks and falling domestic prices are intensifying pressure on agricultural producers' revenues and creating risks for winter sowing campaign. Russia maintains a strong position in vegetable oil markets, with its share of the total market for major oils estimated at approximately 9%, i.e., a figure exceeding five-year average. Russia’s shares of global chicken and pork exports also exceed average levels of previous years, although they remain relatively small. Clearing export duties on grain and fixing rates for sunflower oil and meal are intended to support purchase prices; however, realizing export potential depends on restoring existing supply channels and developing alternative ones.