A Predictive Multiscale Model of the Malaria Disease System at the Macrocommunity Level of Organization

The ability to develop mathematical models of infectious disease systems that integrate the dynamics of infectious disease processes at multiple scales is essential in furthering our understanding of infectious disease control, elimination, and even eradication. In this article, a new method for development of a class of coupled multiscale models of infectious-disease systems which are transmitted in multiple host species and multiple communities in the context of single pathogen species using the malaria disease system as a paradigm is presented. Such multiscale models are developed either at the microcommunity level, integrating the within-microcommunity scale and between-microcommunity scale, or at the macrocommunity level, integrating the within-macrocommunity scale and between-macrocommunity scale. The new method is illustrated by developing a coupled multiscale model of the malaria disease system at the macrocommunity level, integrating an ODE multiscale model for the local transmission dynamics of malaria disease at the within-macrocommunity scale, and a graph-theoretic approach to represent the global disease transmission dynamics at the between-macrocommunity scale. This study focuses on mathematical formulation and analysis of such coupled multiscale models and illustrating how subsequent analysis of this multiscale model framework can be extended to incorporate various intervention strategies for the control and even elimination of the malaria disease system.