Geopolitical risk and the spatial convergence of renewable energy consumption: Evidence from 1996 to 2026

As global energy systems undergo rapid transition amid escalating geopolitical tensions, understanding how renewable energy consumption converges across countries has become critical for designing resilient and coordinated energy policies. The analysis uses a balanced panel covering 1996–2026, retaining published observations wherever available and using ARIMA-based terminal extensions only for unavailable observations; robustness is additionally assessed using a restricted pre-2024 sample covering 1996–2023. The empirical findings provide robust evidence of σ-convergence, γ-convergence, and both absolute and conditional spatial β-convergence in renewable energy consumption, with convergence coefficients ranging from −0.023 to −0.073 across specifications. The results reveal that geopolitical risk (GPR) is positively and statistically significantly associated with the estimated conditional spatial β-convergence parameter (LnGPR = 0.014, p < 0.05), indicating that higher geopolitical risk is correlated with a slower rate of convergence. The conditional spatial β-convergence coefficient is negative and significant (β = −0.055, p < 0.01), confirming convergence after accounting for spatial dependence and control variables. This study contributes to the literature by integrating geopolitical risk into the spatial convergence framework of renewable energy consumption, offering new insights into the interaction between global uncertainty and energy transition. The findings suggest that fostering convergence in renewable energy consumption is associated with potential energy security benefits, including technological innovation, improved efficiency, reduced production costs, and increased energy diversification. However, these relationships are associative and do not establish causality. Policymakers should therefore consider geopolitical conditions and oil-resource dependence when designing strategies to achieve sustainable energy transitions and net-zero targets.