Supply chain security and global dependencies in the trade of phosphorus-related products

Phosphorus (P) is fundamental to all living organisms and serves as a non-substitutable nutrient in fertilizers, yet its global supply largely depends on phosphate rock (PR) mining concentrated in a small number of countries. In 2023, global PR mining reached 220 million tonnes, with approximately 93% used for fertilizer production. Driven by population growth and rising animal-product consumption, P-fertilizer demand is projected to increase by 40% by 2060 relative to 2020 levels. Combined with low recycling rates and uneven resource distribution, these trends heighten the risk of future supply disruptions and pose geopolitical challenges. This study analyzes global phosphorus flows and trade dependencies from 2001 to 2023 using a mass-flow-based trade network, tracing PR from extraction to final fertilizer while enhancing supply chain resilience. The results show that supply dependencies extend beyond mining countries and are structurally embedded in transformation and trade networks. Morocco and Jordan account for around 50% of global PR outflows, while China dominates phosphorus transformation in downstream categories. Countries without PR reserves, including Belgium, Germany, Spain, and The Netherlands, emerge as critical trade and transformation hubs. This concentration of mining, transformation, and trade creates systemic supply security risks, particularly for inflow-dependent countries such as Pakistan and Indonesia, whose inflows rely on a limited number of suppliers. The findings reveal hidden interdependencies that amplify vulnerability to supply disruptions. Addressing these via diversification and transparency enhances supply chain resilience.