Tourism, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions Across Income Groups: Evidence for Sustainable Development Pathways

ABSTRACT Sustainable development requires balancing tourism expansion, economic growth, and environmental protection, yet the tourism–growth–emissions nexus may differ across income levels. This study examines short‐run associations among international tourist arrivals, per capita GDP, and CO 2 emissions using a balanced panel of 79 countries from 2010 to 2023. Countries are classified into four income groups: high‐income, upper‐middle‐income, lower‐middle‐income, and low‐income economies. The empirical strategy follows a diagnostic‐based panel‐data approach. Cross‐sectional dependence, panel unit roots, and panel cointegration are tested before estimation. Since the results indicate cross‐sectional dependence, non‐stationarity in level variables, and no evidence of cointegration, the main analysis applies first‐difference fixed‐effects models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors. The findings show that annual changes in per capita GDP are positively and significantly associated with annual changes in CO 2 emissions in the full sample, indicating that short‐run economic growth remains emissions‐intensive. Tourism‐related associations are weaker in the pooled results but differ across income groups. Tourist‐arrival growth is significantly associated with emissions growth in high‐income and upper‐middle‐income countries, while GDP growth shows the strongest emissions association in lower‐middle‐income countries. Low‐income results are interpreted cautiously due to limited country coverage. The study contributes income‐sensitive exploratory evidence to sustainable tourism and environmental economics by showing that low‐carbon tourism and green‐growth strategies should be tailored to development contexts rather than applied uniformly across countries.