Drivers of food security in Somalia through trade openness institutional quality agricultural production and economic growth

Food availability is a key dimension of food security, particularly where domestic production and access to food supplies are constrained. This study examines the roles of agricultural production, institutional quality, trade openness, and economic growth in shaping food availability in Somalia, using the Food Production Index as a proxy. Using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2022, the study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate long-run and short-run relationships, with Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) used as robustness checks. The results show a positive and statistically significant long-run association between trade openness and food availability, while economic growth also has a positive and statistically significant relationship. Agricultural production has a positive but weaker association, whereas institutional quality has a negative and statistically insignificant relationship. The robustness estimates broadly confirm the direction and statistical significance of the main long-run relationships. The findings highlight the relevance of trade openness, economic growth, and domestic agricultural production for strengthening food availability in Somalia. Because the Food Production Index primarily captures availability, the findings should not be interpreted as evidence for all dimensions of food security.