Value chain position and intermediate-input technical efficiency in a small open economy: a multi-method input–output analysis of Slovenia

Global value chain research measures participation and value capture extensively but rarely asks whether position within a chain carries a productivity penalty at sectoral level. This study examines that question for Slovenia, a small open European economy where exports approach 79% of gross domestic product over 2019–2022. Efficiency is defined explicitly as input-oriented technical efficiency measured over one input, intermediate consumption, and two outputs, value added and final-plus-export demand; it carries no labor or capital input and is not economic, energy or environmental efficiency. Data envelopment analysis, Simar–Wilson bootstrapping, Malmquist decomposition, Tobit regression and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis are applied to OECD inter-country input–output data for 48 sectors. Three findings develop. Input dependence, not scale, is the binding constraint: a ten-point rise in the intermediate input share of gross output lowers efficiency by 0.094, while sector size is insignificant throughout. Upstream position carries an independent penalty, with the forward Leontief multiplier significant at −0.036 after controlling for input intensity and demand orientation. Structural position predicts inefficiency far more reliably than efficiency: the upstream, input-intensive configuration is sufficient for low efficiency with a consistency of 0.993, whereas no configuration exceeds 0.913 for high efficiency. Productivity compressed rather than expanded, with the frontier contracting 8.7% while laggards converged 9.2%. Because intermediate consumption proxies’ material throughput, efficiency improvement and material-intensity reduction describe one structural change rather than competing objectives, aligning industrial and sustainability policy in economies positioned upstream in global chains.