Back to the future for the Prison Rape Elimination Act (PREA): The development and validation of an actuarial risk assessment instrument for sexual violence in prison

Abstract Research Summary This study evaluated the predictive validity of Minnesota's professional judgment‐based Prison Rape Elimination Act (PREA) screening tool and developed a gender‐specific actuarial instrument to assess risk for sexual victimization and perpetration in prison. Using data from 22,238 admissions to Minnesota's prison system between 2021 and 2025, we examined official reports of sexual abuse. The professional judgement‐based PREA tool demonstrated weak predictive discrimination. In contrast, the actuarial models showed substantially stronger performance, with area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.74 to 0.79 for women and from 0.71 to 0.73 for men. These findings indicate that actuarial, gender‐specific tools outperform professional judgment‐based instruments and highlight the importance of tailoring risk assessments to population‐specific characteristics. Policy Implications The results underscore the need for corrections agencies to adopt validated actuarial risk assessment instruments for PREA compliance. Current screening tools, developed primarily through professional judgment, may misclassify risk and fail to prevent sexual violence effectively. Implementing actuarial, gender‐specific tools can improve housing, programming, and supervision decisions, thereby enhancing institutional safety. Agencies should consider leveraging existing screening data to develop customized instruments and explore multistate collaborations to create tools with broader generalizability. Additionally, reassessment protocols for individuals incarcerated longer than 1 year could further improve predictive accuracy. These steps would advance PREA's goals of preventing sexual abuse and promoting safer correctional environments.