Toward Sustainable Water Security in the MINT Countries: Challenges, Opportunities, and Policy Pathways

ABSTRACT The attainment of sustainable development goals requires the achievement of water security. However, many developing nations with abundant freshwater resources struggle with water insecurity problems. Therefore, the present study adopts a systematic, protocol‐based, and comparative evaluation of water security sustainability in the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Türkiye), which host approximately 716 million people. The study adopted a scoping review protocol (PRISMA‐ScR) along with the most different systems approach. An exploratory search on OpenAlex produced 2931 papers out of which 2309 papers remained after applying the filter. In addition, manual supplementary searches on scientific databases and institutions yielded 101 sources, out of which 93 papers were peer‐reviewed and 8 were from institutions/statistics. The indicators were standardized to the same reference year (2022) through FAO AQUASTAT, WHO/UNICEF JMP, and the UN SDG Global Database, and the evidence was coded into an evidence matrix across nine dimensions of analysis. Three main findings emerge. First, after normalizing the endowments by population size, four countries differ in terms of water availability ranging from 1282 m 3 /capita/year (Nigeria) to 7241 m 3 (Indonesia); besides, SDG 6.4.2 water stress ranges from 29.7% (Indonesia and Nigeria) to 47.9% (Türkiye): both nations displaying the lowest levels of physical stress (Nigeria and Indonesia) have the lowest access levels to at least basic drinking water (79.5% and 89.7%) and, of the three nations with national estimates of water services, the lowest safely managed access (28.9% and 30.3%; Türkiye has no published estimate). On the other hand, the two nations with the highest levels of physical stress (Mexico and Türkiye) have near‐universal coverage of at least basic drinking water (99.3% and 96.0%). Second, the noted disconnect between resource endowment and access is consistent with the endowment paradox, which suggests that the quality of institutions, financing, and infrastructure, and not physical scarcity, determines service access. Given that the study is exploratory in nature and involves only four cases, the finding should be considered a hypothesis to be tested, but it should be pointed out that the difference in income and urbanization levels may lead to the same result. Finally, the literature review produces an integrated framework consisting of constructs, five propositions, indicators, contextual moderators, feedback loops, and trade‐offs among Sustainable Development Goals, and an openly scored set of policy pathways. We conclude with priority policy recommendations and a future research agenda for testing the developed framework quantitatively.