Unveiling energy poverty vulnerability in a megacity: A spatial regression approach

Energy poverty is driven by rising global energy prices and climate-related disruptions. This study examines the spatial dimensions of energy poverty vulnerability in Seoul, a megacity marked by demographic aging, fragmented housing, and infrastructural inequality. Using spatial regression models, we analyse 424 administrative districts to identify both spatially homogeneous and heterogeneous determinants of energy poverty. Citywide drivers include the low-income household ratio, average floor area, and the single-person household ratio. Districts with higher shares of low-income households and larger dwelling sizes exhibit greater vulnerability, whereas districts with higher concentrations of single-person households tend to show lower vulnerability. Thermal-safety infrastructure variables, including cooling centres and warm banks, display positive citywide associations, reflecting their targeted placement in already vulnerable areas. Spatially heterogeneous influences include the elderly ratio, apartment share, population density, and park area. Vulnerability increases in districts where aging populations coincide with structurally inefficient housing, while apartment-dominated neighbourhoods consistently exhibit lower vulnerability. Density and green space exert mitigating effects in selected districts, highlighting locally specific built-environment advantages. We derive three policy implications: (1) spatially targeted adjustment of thermal-safety infrastructure based on neighbourhood vulnerability clusters; (2) place-based housing retrofit strategies focused on structurally energy-intensive districts; and (3) adoption of spatial diagnostics to guide differentiated urban energy policies. By integrating spatial regression with district-level metered utility data, this study offers a transferable framework for diagnosing and addressing intra- urban energy poverty vulnerability in megacities facing similar structural conditions.