Risk Allocation in Public-Private Industrial Megaprojects: A Systematic Evidence Review and Implications for Saudi Automotive Development

Risk allocation shapes the bankability, value for money, and long-term performance of public-private partnerships (PPPs), yet the evidence remains dispersed across infrastructure sectors and is rarely translated to industrial megaprojects. This systematic evidence review synthesizes risk-allocation research and derives bounded implications for Saudi automotive development. Six OpenAlex searches were conducted on 22 July 2026 for peer-reviewed work published from 2000 to the search date. Crossref and source pages verified bibliographic data, while official Saudi and World Bank materials supplied policy context. Of 446 unique records screened, 75 underwent detailed eligibility assessment and 41 peer-reviewed studies were included. Framework-based synthesis identifies eight evidence domains: allocation principles; political and institutional risk; finance and demand; construction and technical delivery; operations and lifecycle performance; governance and renegotiation; private participation; and sustainability. The evidence rejects both maximal risk transfer and static allocation. Risks should be assigned to the party best able to influence probability or impact, absorb residual exposure at least cost, and exercise the required decision rights. Uncontrollable or policy-created risks may require sharing, relief events, guarantees, indexed payments, or contingent support. A lifecycle framework is developed for automotive industrial ecosystems covering enabling infrastructure, permitting, construction, technology, localization, demand, utilities, supply chains, workforce, environmental performance, and change in law.