Burden of autism spectrum disorders in Jordan from 1990 to 2023: systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2023

Background Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a lifelong neurodevelopmental condition with substantial functional and societal burden. However, national data on ASD burden remain limited in many middle-income countries, including Jordan. Aims This study aimed to quantify temporal trends in the prevalence, incidence and disability burden of ASD in Jordan from 1990 to 2023, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2023. Method This population-based longitudinal study used GBD 2023 estimates to quantify the burden of ASD in Jordan from 1990 to 2023. As national epidemiological data are limited, estimates were generated with GBD’s Bayesian meta-regression modelling based on regional covariates. Annual prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were extracted as counts and rates per 100 000 population with 95% uncertainty intervals, and analysed by age, gender and temporal trends. Results Between 1990 and 2023, the burden of ASD in Jordan increased substantially, with estimated point-prevalence cases rising from 23 919 to 97 056, and YLDs increasing from 4541 to 18 399. Point estimates of age-standardised prevalence, incidence and YLD rates increased over time, with consistently higher burdens among males and the highest rates observed in early childhood, particularly ages 2–9 years. However, wide and frequently overlapping 95% uncertainty intervals suggest that temporal changes should be interpreted with caution. Conclusions This study describes modelled trends in ASD burden in Jordan from 1990 to 2023, showing an overall increase in prevalence, incidence and disability-related measures. These findings should be interpreted cautiously given the reliance on GBD modelled estimates, but they may support Jordanian and similar countries’ future planning of health services and research priorities.