Diverse coupling between climate change, socio-economic factors and climate potential productivity in Africa

Africa’s accelerating climate warming has rendered its climate potential productivity (CPP) increasingly vulnerable, raising global concerns over biodiversity, water resources, and food security. Understanding the long‑term evolution of CPP and its driving mechanisms has therefore become an urgent research priority. This study analyses the spatiotemporal patterns and correlates of CPP across Africa, using the Thornthwaite Memorial model in combination with trend detection, correlation, and econometric analyses. The results reveal a declining CPP trend over 1901–2019, with a distinct latitudinal zonal distribution. CPP is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Continued deterioration is a likely consequence of future warmer and drier conditions. During 2000–2019, the predictive associations between CPP and industrialization, energy consumption, and PM2.5 emissions are directionally heterogeneous. CPP exhibits a unidirectional association with industrialization and PM2.5 emissions, while maintaining a bidirectional association with energy consumption. The industrialization‑CPP relationship follows an environmental Kuznets curve pattern, while CPP correlates positively with energy consumption and weakly negatively with PM2.5. These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding the dynamic evolution of Africa’s CPP and the socio‑ecological factors, and offer quantitative insights into the trade‑offs and synergies among environmental health, climate suitability, and industrial development in the region.