The effects of China's Major Function-Oriented Zoning on construction land expansion: The role of resource factors

Although strategic spatial planning is widely used to shape territorial development and protection, its effects on construction land expansion and the underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently examined. Using China's Major Function-Oriented Zoning (MFOZ) as a case, this study evaluates the policy effects, mechanisms, heterogeneity, and spatial spillovers of differentiated construction land expansion across four functional zones. The results show that the MFOZ is only partially effective, evidenced by a deceleration of expansion in optimized development zones and a marked acceleration in major agricultural zones. These dynamics are primarily driven by resource reallocation. While population agglomeration enhances land-use efficiency in optimized and prioritized development zones, main agricultural zones face a mismatch between population change and land development. Furthermore, the diffusion of secondary industries from optimized development zones to prioritized development zones, and further into main agricultural zones, further exacerbates construction land expansion in the latter. Policy effects also exhibit hierarchical heterogeneity—stimulating significant expansion in provincial-level prioritized zones but not at the national level—alongside spatial spillovers where optimized and prioritized zones constrain surrounding land expansion. These findings emphasize that future strategic spatial planning should better integrate market forces, eliminate institutional barriers to resource mobility, refine zoning frameworks, and provide targeted guidance for construction land demand.