What explains the implementation gap in foresight-designed policies? Evidence from a regional development strategy in Chile

Abstract Foresight and strategic planning have been widely recommended in public policy design to reduce uncertainty and improve governance. However, the gap between a foresight-designed public policy and its effective implementation remains a critical challenge for long-term governance, especially given the limited empirical evidence on how these designs perform during the implementation phase. In Chile, Regional Development Strategies (RDS) articulate visions of the future to guide territorial action, but their implementation has been little examined from the perspective of implementation theory and future studies. This article analyzes the implementation process of the RDS of the Los Ríos Region in Chile (2009–2019) using Matland''s Ambiguity-Conflict model and its subsequent analytical operationalization by Van Gossum et al. Using a qualitative case study approach based on documentary analysis and structured interviews, the results of the implementation are analyzed in three categories: resources, networks, and rules. The results reveal that, although foresight initially managed to generate conditions conducive to an administrative implementation , in the process, the Los Ríos RDS evolved towards a political implementation . The findings show that the absence of financial resources, the rotation of authorities, high discretionary power, and the lack of monitoring and evaluation mechanisms resulting from the non-binding nature of the instrument, transformed the implementation into a scenario of power negotiation, challenging the legitimacy of origin granted by foresight. This research is significant for the field of future studies by providing empirical evidence from the Global South on how institutional architecture conditions state anticipatory capacities.