Hukou system reform, agricultural production transformation and China’s food security

This paper explores how accelerated agricultural labour migration affects China’s grain output and how its underlying channels differ in the short and long run. Launched in 2011, the hukou system reform eased restrictions on rural labourers settling in urban areas. Using provincial data from 2005 to 2022, we estimate a multi-period DID model. The results show that the average grain output of treated provinces rose by 1.659 million tons after the reform (approximately 9.1% relative to the pre-reform average). Further analysis provides suggestive evidence that the reform advances agricultural production transformation: machinery may offset labour outflow in the short run, while farmland transfer may deliver scale effects in the long run. These findings suggest that well-functioning farmland transfer markets, effective prevention of farmland abandonment, and sound agricultural social service systems are essential.