Opting out of Voter Registration: An Analysis of Statewide Automatic Voter Registration Policies in the United States (2012-2024)

Analyzing CES and CPS survey data from 2012 to 2024, I evaluate whether the adoption of an opt-out AVR policy increases registration and turnout across the electorate, as well as among groups specifically targeted by these policies - movers and young people. Difference in difference estimates suggest that AVR increases registration by 1.8 percentage points among the full electorate and 3.5 percentage points among young voters but does not impact individual-level turnout. Additionally, the implementation of an AVR policy is not associated with an increase in registration or turnout for those who have moved within the past year. Thus, while opt-out AVR policies are impactful for the electorate writ large to some degree, they are most effective for those who are more likely to come into contact with participating state agencies and only effective when it comes to the first step of the process for political participation, registration.