Climate warming and intensified precipitation extremes triggered regime shifts in Lake Ayakkum, East Kunlun Mountains

Study Region Ayakkum Lake on the Kumukuli Basin. Study Focus This study utilizes the meteorological and lake-level data to analyze climatic and hydrological change in the Ayakkum Lake region during 1961–2023, elucidating the driver mechanisms through which climate variablity and extreme weather events have influenced water level change of Ayakkum Lake. New Hydrological Insights for the Region The results indicate that the Mann–Kendall abrupt change analysis reveals a more pronounced warming–wetting and extreme trend in the Kumukuli Basin and its surrounding areas during 1995–2023. The climatic warming–wetting have led to a significant rise in the water level of Ayakkum Lake at a rate of 0.209 m·year⁻¹ (p < 0.01) during 1995–2009, with the rate accelerating to 0.438 m·year⁻¹ (p < 0.01) during 2010–2023. Random Forest analysis identified extreme precipitation (26.26% contribution) and temperature-driven glacial ablation (45.58% contribution) as the primary drivers of lake water level (LWL) rise, jointly explaining 71.84% of the increase. Between 1995–2009, the rise in LWL was predominantly driven by temperature-induced snow and ice melt. In contrast, the marked acceleration of LWL after 2010 was primarily attributed to increased extreme precipitation. These findings provide a significant scientific basis for water resource management in Lake Ayakkum.