Impacts of needle-leaved forests landscape pattern and environmental factors on the spatial differentiation of pine wilt disease in China

Following its emergence in China, pine wilt disease (PWD) has continuously expanded, creating substantial risks to regional forest ecosystems. However, most existing research emphasizes climate and other macro-scale associated factors, and lacks long-term and systematic analysis approached through the lens of forest landscape patterns. The research focuses on describing the spatiotemporal dynamics of PWD in China across the period 1982–2020 and identifying the dominant factors influencing its distribution. We specifically examined how needle-leaved forest landscape patterns interact with environmental conditions to shape the spread of PWD across regions. We applied the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) model to analyze the spatial differentiation of PWD outbreaks. Needle-leaved forest landscape metrics and environmental variables were integrated to evaluate their individual and combined effects on disease spread. PWD has progressively expanded over the past four decades. The epidemic was primarily distributed along the southeastern coastal zones and subsequently extended toward the northwestern interior. Landscape factors such as patch density, patch number, landscape shape index, mean patch size and connectivity index, and environmental factors such as temperature, roads and population had high explanatory power on PWD spatial patterns, and the interaction of the two factors considerably improved the interpretive capacity for epidemic differentiation. Our findings enhance ecological understanding of disease spread and provide a scientific basis for risk assessment, early warning, and landscape-based management strategies in forest ecosystems.