Voluntary Carbon Markets in Scotland: A Geospatial Analysis Linking Land Systems, Climate Change, and Ecosystem Services

Natural capital markets in Scotland are evolving to respond to climate and biodiversity crises. The Woodland Carbon Code (WCC) and Peatland Code (PC) are established voluntary carbon markets that have attracted investors and promoted environmental restoration. Yet, a comprehensive analysis has not been carried out to assess the potential impacts and benefits of these carbon credit projects. Here, we present an environmental geography of carbon credits in Scotland that examines their spatiotemporal distributions, landholding dynamics, protection status, restoration area, land cover change, climate characteristics, emissions reduction potential, and ecosystem service areas. We analyzed WCC and PC projects from 2000 to 2025 and compared them to a suite of environmental and socioeconomic datasets. The 906 WCC projects plan to plant 74,909 ha of woodlands, with the smallest being 0.4 ha and the largest being 5601 ha (median = 35 ha). Most of the woodlands planted under the WCC were relatively small with marginal land cover change. The 253 PC projects plan to restore 35,448 ha of peatlands, with a median project area of 115 ha. Half of the PC projects (interquartile range) were between 70 and 185 ha, and almost a fifth exceeded 200 ha. Significant warming (+1.5 °C) and increased precipitation (+150 mm) over the past 60 years have implications for present and future carbon storage. Our most interesting results were landownership dynamics, where less than 3% of the landed estates (median) were set aside for restoration. While relatively few large landowners benefit financially from carbon credit projects, most of Scotland’s population benefits from their local and regional ecosystem services. Our findings are relevant for climate change mitigation and ecosystem restoration planning in Scotland and land systems beyond.