Anticipatory insights for “great resignation 2.0”: a longitudinal study of voluntary turnover predictors and performance implications using the push-pull-mooring framework

Purpose This study provides anticipatory insights for a likely “great resignation 2.0” by analyzing voluntary turnover predictors from two stakeholder perspectives: employees and human resource (HR) managers. Drawing on the push-pull-mooring (PPM) framework, it examines employee decision-making during the “great resignation” period that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach In phase 1 of this three-phase longitudinal study, survey data from 236 junior and mid-level employees in Indian information technology (IT) and allied knowledge-based firms were analyzed to identify significant turnover predictors. The same cohort participated in two sequential phase 1 survey waves (45-item exploratory factor analysis (EFA) instrument followed by a 21-item baseline instrument). In phase 2, semi-structured interviews with 30 HR managers from the same organizations were conducted to compare managerial perceptions. Based on insights from both phases, pilot interventions were implemented. Phase 3, initiated one year after the implementation of the interventions, involved collecting follow-up data from 221 of the 236 employees who had participated in phase 1. Findings Phase 1 identified “pay and incentives”, “training and continuous education”, and “reward and recognition” as key predictors while “organizational culture” and “relationship with supervisor” remained non-significant. Phase 2 highlighted “nature of work”, “job autonomy”, “job prestige”, and “work-life balance”, revealing a perceptual gap in priorities between employees and their HR managers. Phase 3 data showed better alignment among the phase 1 predictors and greater explanation of the variance in voluntary turnover intention. Following the interventions, “relationship with supervisor” emerged as a significant factor, the influence of “pay and incentives” intensified while the influence of “reward and recognition” nearly halved. Originality/value The study contributes to the literature on strategic performance management by integrating turnover analysis with productivity concerns in a post-pandemic context. The findings have significant value in the current employment landscape as organizations are preparing for the “Great Resignation 2.0”.