A Participatory Modeling Framework for Rapid Estimation of Loss and Damage Following Flood Disasters

Abstract As important policy and diplomatic progress is reached around climate-related loss and damage, attention has shifted to existing gaps regarding science-based methods and frameworks to inform effective action. A basic prerequisite for systematically minimizing and addressing losses and damages is reliable quantification in the aftermath of a disaster. Many approaches can be adopted from disaster risk reduction and adaptation disciplines, especially those combining top-down technological solutions with bottom-up stakeholder engagement, to ensure inclusivity and efficiency. In this article, we propose a framework that integrates participatory asset inventories, satellite image analysis, and impact modeling to provide decision makers with estimations of losses and damages within days of a flood event, once a sufficiently detailed flood footprint becomes available. We exemplify the approach using the case study of category 4 tropical storms Eta and Iota that struck the municipality of San Pedro Sula in Honduras within two weeks in 2020. The proposed framework is based on open-source tools that enable easy accessibility and scaling up, aligning with the requirements of rapid and scalable technical assistance needed to accompany climate diplomacy.