Building energy performance regulation and energy poverty: evidence from a natural experiment

Improving residential energy efficiency is essential for environmental and social sustainability because the residential building sector accounts for a substantial share of energy consumption, and inefficient housing can exacerbate energy poverty and socioeconomic inequalities. Therefore, building energy performance policies may contribute to reducing residential energy demand, improving thermal comfort, and supporting a more equitable energy transition. This study examines whether Türkiye’s nationwide Regulation on Energy Performance in Buildings (REPB), implemented in 2011, is associated with improvements in household energy poverty. Using nationally representative Income and Living Conditions Survey data for 2006–2023, we applied a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DID) framework, complemented by propensity score matching and entropy balancing, to estimate differential post-policy changes among households potentially exposed to the regulation’s insulation-related mechanism. This study evaluates subjective, expenditure-based, and multidimensional measures of energy poverty and examines distributional heterogeneity across income groups. Potential exposure to the REPB is associated with statistically significant post-policy reductions in several dimensions of energy poverty. Relative to the comparison group, utility bill arrears decreased by 1.8% points, poor housing conditions by 5.2% points, inadequate heating by 10.6% points, and the 10% expenditure-burden indicator by 2.2% points. The multidimensional energy poverty index also declined significantly (DID coefficient = − 0.189). The findings are broadly robust to propensity score matching, entropy balancing, alternative treatment definitions, placebo tests, alternative expenditure-based measures, and coefficient-stability tests. Dynamic estimates indicate stronger improvements during the early post-policy period, followed by attenuation over time. Distributional analyses reveal heterogeneous associations across income groups, while evidence for expenditure-based energy poverty is weaker than that for subjective and multidimensional measures. Building energy performance regulation may contribute to both social and environmental sustainability by addressing structural deficiencies in housing, improving thermal conditions, and supporting a more equitable transition toward energy efficient housing. However, regulation alone may be insufficient to ensure persistent and inclusive improvement. Complementary measures, including targeted retrofit support, financial incentives for vulnerable households, maintenance, enforcement, and energy-saving information, may help sustain energy efficiency gains and ensure that the benefits of energy transition are more widely shared.