Dynamics of urban wetland ecosystem service values in China

Although urbanization has profound ecological consequences, quantitative evidence on how socio-economic factors in this process affect China’s urban wetland ecosystem services (UWES) remains limited. We present a comprehensive systematic review of UWES valuation in China and develop a meta-analysis database integrating urban wetland valuation studies with city-level characteristics to examine the temporal dynamics and drivers of UWES across stages of urbanization. We identify a structural shift around 2015 and an urbanization-rate threshold of approximately 82.3%, beyond which the determinants of urban wetland value change substantially in both magnitude and direction. This pattern suggests a transition from expansion-driven urbanization to a more mature phase where ecological conditions, governance capacity, and city-level characteristics play a greater role. Drawing on evidence from residents’ willingness-to-pay for non-use UWES and nationwide projections of UWES values, we derive policy implications for stage-specific wetland conservation strategies and integrated management.