Quantifying population vital rates for a declining population of eastern wild turkeys

Wildlife managers across North America have documented long-term declines in wild turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo ) productivity and harvest. In Georgia, United States estimated harvest of wild turkeys has declined precipitously since the early 2000s. In response to these declines, the Georgia Department of Natural Resources adjusted spring harvest regulations in 2022, which included a reduction in bag limit and delays to opening dates that varied from private to public lands. These adjusted opening dates were still several weeks prior to peaks in nest initiation and incubation, although contemporary literature has noted that opening seasons around these peaks is the most biologically appropriate season framework. Using 9 years of data from 2017 to 2025, we developed an integrated population model to evaluate the population trajectory of a wild turkey population in north-central Georgia and assess potential impacts of spring regulation changes on population dynamics. We found persistent population declines throughout our study, with median female population growth rates of 0.85 and 0.89 before and after regulation changes, respectively. Reductions in the male bag limit resulted in no significant changes in harvest rate for adults (Before: 0.33, After: 0.30). Simulations of male population growth rate suggested that the impact of male harvest rates depend greatly on the abundance and reproductive success of female turkeys in the population. We recommend agencies consider implementing and simultaneously studying alterations to spring harvest regulations that fully align the timing and rate of harvest with peaks in nest incubation to determine if such alterations will influence ongoing population declines.