Is parents’ employment uncertainty linked to children's development? Analysing patterns and mechanisms in France

Abstract Early childhood is a critical period for the reproduction of social inequality. While extant literature focuses on socio-economic background, less is known about the role of parents’ employment uncertainty, notwithstanding its significant presence in post-Fordist societies. We investigate the relationship between household employment uncertainty (HEU)—including temporary work and unemployment—and children's cognitive and socio-emotional development, as well as their physical health. We leverage four waves of the nationally representative French Longitudinal Study of Children (ELFE). First, using ordinary least squares and linear probability models, we find that the accumulation within the household and the persistence of HEU over time are both associated with lower cognitive development (up to −0.2 SD) at ages 2 and 3.5. Results for socio-emotional development are less robust, and physical health appears not to be correlated with HEU, possibly due to comprehensive healthcare. Second, we examine potential mechanisms using counterfactual mediation analysis. In line with the family investment and the family stress models, income and parental investment in cognitively-enhancing activities mediate the link with cognitive development, whereas parental stress mediates the association with socio-emotional development. Robustness tests include regression-with-residuals to account for other mediators and sibling birth as post-treatment confounders of the mediator–outcome link. Overall, HEU emerges as an important pathway in early inequality, calling for targeted policy.