Enhancing the Resilience of Third Front Industrial Heritage in Lizhou District, Guangyuan City, Based on Value and Geological Hazard Susceptibility Assessments

This study develops a two-dimensional value–geological hazard susceptibility framework for the resilience-oriented conservation of Third Front industrial heritage. Heritage value is quantified using the AHP–TOPSIS method, while geological hazard susceptibility is predicted by coupling the Certainty Factor (CF) with Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and XGBoost models; model performance is evaluated using an independent test set. Using 24 Third Front industrial heritage sites in Lizhou District, Guangyuan City, as a case study, the research first classifies heritage value and assesses geological hazard susceptibility. The results indicate that CF–RF provides the most favorable overall performance among the three CF-coupled models, while hazard-site density generally increases with susceptibility class. Heritage value is then integrated with the CF–RF susceptibility results to construct a Value–Susceptibility Matrix. The 24 sites are classified into four groups—high value–high susceptibility, high value–low susceptibility, low value–high susceptibility, and low value–low susceptibility—comprising 4, 9, 5, and 6 sites, respectively. Differentiated pathways are proposed for these groups, including conservation under safety constraints, preventive conservation and adaptive reuse, limited intervention, and routine maintenance. By linking heritage value identification, geological hazard susceptibility assessment, and differentiated conservation strategies, the study provides a methodological reference for the sustainable conservation, adaptive reuse, and resilience management of Third Front industrial heritage in complex mountainous environments. The framework contributes to sustainability by supporting more efficient allocation of limited conservation resources, continued heritage use, and long-term adaptive management.