Spatial dynamics of infrastructure development across Indian states

Progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals across India’s states has been spatially uneven, and most subnational assessments treat infrastructure indicators in isolation, leaving open how sectoral performance and fiscal capacity jointly shape regional outcomes. This study develops the Holistic Infrastructure Development Index (HIDI), a composite scalar that combines four infrastructure-relevant SDG dimensions-water and sanitation (SDG 6), clean energy (SDG 7), industry and infrastructure (SDG 9), and sustainable cities (SDG 11) with state-level per-capita public expenditure, used here as a proxy for the spending dimension of fiscal capacity and treated as a structural feature of each state rather than an annual flow. We use state-level SDG and fiscal data for 28 Indian states between 2018 and 2024 (N = 112), drawn from the NITI Aayog SDG India Index. We examine infrastructure convergence through complementary sigma and beta analyses, and assess the spatial structure of HIDI through Global Moran’s I with permutation inference and a Moran scatterplot reading. The data document both forms of convergence: cross-sectional dispersion falls by 12.0% over the period, and the regression of log growth on initial HIDI returns β = − 0.681, r = − 0.902, R 2 = 0.81 ( p < 0.001). Spatial autocorrelation is positive and statistically significant in every wave (Moran’s I = + 0.196 to + 0.420; pseudo- p ≤ 0.048), with stronger performers concentrated in the western–southern corridor and persistent underperformance in several northeastern states. Higher fiscal capacity does not translate uniformly into stronger infrastructure outcomes: dispersion is largest within the top fiscal quartile, a pattern we develop as the Infrastructure Fiscal Nexus Paradox, in which governance quality and absorptive capacity are associated with the resource outcome link. We organise these patterns into four illustrative development archetypes Fiscal-Augmented Performers, Efficiency-Led Performers, Catch-Up Leaders, and Development Traps and the findings indicate that intergovernmental transfers could usefully be linked not only to fiscal need but also to demonstrated implementation capacity and infrastructure outcomes.