Preaching to the choir: deterrence, information campaigns and aspirations to migrate

To what extent do restrictive migration policies and information campaigns about the dangers of irregular migration shape aspirations to migrate? While states in the Global North seek to discourage irregular migration through securitised and externalised policies alongside campaigns raising awareness about the risks of irregular routes, the way in which these efforts influence migration aspirations calls for examination. We argue that migration aspirations are primarily shaped by contextual and personal circumstances, while policies and information about risks play a secondary role. As a result, those with strong desires to migrate will be undeterred by policies and information, while those committed to staying will be reinforced in their decision to remain. Only undecided individuals may be influenced by efforts at deterrence, but primarily towards avoiding irregular pathways. We test this conceptual model empirically through 243 semi-structured interviews of longstanding residents of six cities in Algeria (Mostaganem and Sétif), Ethiopia (Adama and Kebri Beyah), and Nigeria (Abuja and Osogbo). We find that the stronger one’s aspirations to migrate, the less likely that policies and information campaigns influence their thinking about migration. This suggests that policies and information campaigns aimed at deterrence largely fail to achieve their ostensible objective of reducing migration aspirations.