Fine‐Tuning a Machine‐Learned 3D Cloud Climatology Reveals Aspects of Cloud Cover Trends

Abstract The Chalmers Cloud Ice Climatology (CCIC) is unique among long‐term cloud records: using retrievals from merged geostationary 11 μm observations, it provides continuous 3D estimates of both frozen hydrometeor mass and cloud probability. Here, we present a key update to CCIC: enhanced detection of thin clouds through tuning of its neural network cloud probability outputs. The update delivers robust information from local instantaneous retrievals to long‐term, large‐scale averages. We compare multidecadal, height‐resolved trends in cloud cover from CCIC and ERA5, revealing subtle but emerging long‐term changes in total cloud cover. By exploiting CCIC's capabilities, the contributions of different cloud types and thicknesses to these changes become clearer. This helps reconcile inconsistent trends between purely observational data and ERA5, suggesting that discrepancies stem from varying sensitivities to high, thin clouds.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-10-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl123369
Primary Topic
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Fine‐Tuning a Machine‐Learned 3D Cloud Climatology Reveals Aspects of Cloud Cover Trends

Patrick Eriksson, Adrià Amell, Simon Pfreundschuh
Geophysical Research Letters
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
article

Fine‐Tuning a Machine‐Learned 3D Cloud Climatology Reveals Aspects of Cloud Cover Trends

Patrick Eriksson, Adrià Amell, Simon Pfreundschuh
article en

Abstract

Abstract The Chalmers Cloud Ice Climatology (CCIC) is unique among long‐term cloud records: using retrievals from merged geostationary 11 μm observations, it provides continuous 3D estimates of both frozen hydrometeor mass and cloud probability. Here, we present a key update to CCIC: enhanced detection of thin clouds through tuning of its neural network cloud probability outputs. The update delivers robust information from local instantaneous retrievals to long‐term, large‐scale averages. We compare multidecadal, height‐resolved trends in cloud cover from CCIC and ERA5, revealing subtle but emerging long‐term changes in total cloud cover. By exploiting CCIC's capabilities, the contributions of different cloud types and thicknesses to these changes become clearer. This helps reconcile inconsistent trends between purely observational data and ERA5, suggesting that discrepancies stem from varying sensitivities to high, thin clouds.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(19)
Chalmers University of Technology (SE), Colorado State University (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 15%
Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
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