The dynamics underlying (in)stability in the Ethiopian federal arrangement: a political party perspective analysis

The Ethiopian federal arrangement, widely known as ‘ethnic federalism’, was introduced in the mid-1990s as a mechanism for managing the country’s pronounced ethnic diversity, with the premise that such an institutional framework would foster national unity and stability. While formal institutional features contribute to the accommodationist potential of federal systems, this article argues that Ethiopia’s federal (in)stability has been shaped more decisively by extra-institutional factors – particularly political party dynamics. The transition from the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) (1991–2019) to the Prosperity Party (PP) (2019–present) marks a critical juncture with significant implications for federal cohesion and stability. This argument is substantiated through a qualitative comparative analysis of the governing ideologies, organizational structures, and operational modalities of these two successive ruling parties, as well as their respective impacts on state stability and societal harmony. In doing so, the article identifies key political party features that have influenced these outcomes.