Food insecurity during a cost‑of‑living crisis: trends and housing‑related vulnerability in Portugal (2019–2023)

Background In high-income countries, food insecurity (FI) increasingly reflects economic pressures rather than food availability. Rising housing and food costs have intensified household budget constraints across Europe, especially among low-income families. Portugal is a notable example, having faced sharp post-pandemic food inflation and currently experiencing a severe housing affordability crisis. Using nationally representative EU‑SILC microdata, this study examines FI trends in Portugal (2019–2023) and assesses their relationship with socio-demographic factors, financial strain, and housing conditions, including housing tenure, a rarely analysed factor in high-income countries. Results FI increased from 13.8% in 2019 to 16.3% in 2023, with moderate or severe FI (MSFI) reaching 4.8% (using FIES probabilistic assignment). Item‑level responses suggest that households often reduce dietary diversity before reporting anxiety or shortages, indicating anticipatory coping and early nutritional compromise. Logistic regression analysis (based on FIES discrete assignment) shows higher odds of MSFI among young adults, lone‑parent households, individuals living alone, and non‑EU migrants, independent of income and other household characteristics. Indicators of financial strain (including difficulty making ends meet and inability to cover unexpected expenses) are strongly associated with MSFI. Housing emerges as a key vulnerability: tenants paying market rent have significantly higher odds of MSFI than homeowners, while tenants paying reduced rent face nearly three times the risk. Housing cost burden is strongly associated with MSFI, underscoring the close link between housing affordability and food access. Conclusions Rising living costs and housing pressures are linked to the prevalence and severity of FI in Portugal. Policy responses should therefore incorporate food, housing, and social protection measures, with targeted support for groups most at risk. These insights are broadly relevant to other high‑income countries experiencing similar cost‑of‑living and housing affordability crises.