METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS FOR DEVELOPING ACCIDENT SCENARIOS AND ASSESSING EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS INDICATORS IN INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES

This article develops a conceptual and methodological approach to assessing industrial enterprises’ preparedness for technological emergencies based on accident scenarios, time dynamics, and the technical and organizational reliability of protective systems. The study aims to evaluate both the availability of protective measures and their capacity to perform required functions before critical time limits are reached. Accident progression is examined as a complex process involving an initiating event, hazard development, detection, warning, decision-making, protective system activation, and evacuation. The analytical model integrates total protective response time, critical time, the time margin coefficient, and the effectiveness and reliability of protective functions. Overall preparedness is assessed using risk weights reflecting scenario probabilities and consequence severity. Theoretical analysis indicates that a high integrated preparedness score does not guarantee effective protection when time margins are insufficient. Human-related delays in decision-making and evacuation are examined, and high, limited, and insufficient preparedness levels are characterized. Automation, evacuation route optimization, protective system redundancy, and diagnostics are identified as improvement priorities. The proposed approach may provide a methodological basis for conducting safety audits, developing emergency response plans, and designing protective systems.