Same‐Sex Marriage in Times of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from Brazil

Abstract This research note examines how political polarization and the fragility of same‐sex marriage rights in Brazil shaped marriage patterns over the past decade. Using civil registry data from 2013 to 2023, we focus on presidential election periods as moments of political uncertainty. The 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro, whose campaign was marked by anti‐LGBTQ+ rhetoric, coincided with a nationwide surge in same‐sex marriages: female couples registered increases of approximately 94 percent and male couples approximately 71 percent above expected levels, while different‐sex marriages remained stable. No comparable surge occurred in the 2022 election, suggesting that the novelty and perceived credibility of the threat drove the 2018 increase. Results further reveal gendered dynamics in mean age at marriage (MAM): among female same‐sex couples, MAM reached its lowest point in 2018 across most regions, consistent with younger women anticipating family formation in response to the political threat, while no comparable shift is observed among male couples. Together, these findings suggest that same‐sex marriage in Brazil functions not only as an affective milestone but as a reactive act of legal protection—a dual character that points to the need for marriage theory to fully account for the drives of same‐sex marriage and its meanings.