The limits of Antarctic conservation governance

Abstract The Antarctic region exerts a profound influence on the Earth system, making its conservation fundamental to sustaining planetary health and human wellbeing. The Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) holds near-exclusive authority for environmental protection across the region, yet questions remain regarding its capacity to address a growing range of conservation threats. We investigate this by analysing over 90,000 scientific and policy documents (1961–2023) to examine how conservation threats are discussed across science and ATS policy deliberations. We find that threats originating more locally show clearer evidence of progression through the ATS’s decision-making system. Threats originating within the Antarctic Treaty Area show repeated progression towards governance action, whereas external threats, including climate change, remain under prolonged deliberation or receive limited engagement altogether. These patterns suggest that the ATS has demonstrated capacity to translate sustained engagement into governance action for threats within its remit, while comparable action remains less evident for threats originating beyond it. This distinction is increasingly consequential because some of Antarctica’s greatest threats originate outside the region. Strengthening coordination between the ATS and broader global governance frameworks may therefore be critical to addressing them.