Prevalence, predictors, and consequences of rapid guessing among children in elementary school

Abstract Background The lack of consequences for test-takers in educational large-scale assessments can lead to rapid guessing, a test-taking behavior characterized by unusually short response times. Despite its potential threat to the validity of assessment outcomes, little is known about rapid guessing among elementary school students. Because children differ in their cognitive development from older individuals, the generalizability of findings from older samples is questionable. Therefore, the current study investigated the prevalence, predictors, and consequences of rapid guessing among children in elementary school. Methods The two-wave study is based on data from the German National Educational Panel Study ( N = 1,887) including a reading and a mathematics assessment in Grades 2 ( n = 1512) and 4 ( n = 1470). Rapid guessing was identified using two visual inspection threshold methods in the Grade 2 mathematics assessment and two normative threshold methods in all other assessments; rapid guesses were scored as missing. Mixed effects logistic regressions were conducted to determine predictors of rapid guessing. Its consequences were operationalized as the impact on ability group comparisons. The estimated ability difference was compared between the filtered and unfiltered data using bootstrap confidence intervals. Results The prevalence of rapid guessing was generally low but differed substantially between assessments (Grade 2: 3.3% in reading, 0.8% in mathematics; Grade 4: 0.5% in reading, 0.4% in mathematics). Test performance estimated solely with engaged responses was negatively related to rapid guessing across assessments, while gender and socio-economic status were not significant predictors. Accounting for rapid guessing did not affect the estimated ability differences between girls and boys or children with low and high parental socio-economic status in any of the assessments. Conclusions The findings support previous research indicating that rapid guessing may be less common among elementary school children than among older populations. However, test and assessment characteristics seem to have a strong influence on the occurrence of rapid guessing in this age group. Even when some rapid guessing was present, it did not affect ability comparisons between subgroups. Only proficiency but not socio-demographic characteristics could be confirmed as a predictor of rapid guessing among children.