When the denominator becomes a model

A model-derived denominator changes the epistemic status of the final rate. The numerator may be observed, but the denominator is estimated from assumptions, data integration and model choices. Public-health indicators should therefore expose denominator provenance, uncertainty and model version rather than presenting a single percentage as if the population count were known. Weavidence Insights. Independent scholarly publication; not externally peer reviewed. AI-assisted drafting and editorial development were used. Pietro Corona remains responsible for the final published claims, source selection, interpretation and approval.