Crime and Participation

Does exposure to crime mobilize or demobilize political participation? We report findings from a preregistered design, leveraging data from an original survey of 21 major U.S. cities and five waves of the Cooperative Election Study. We assess the relationships between direct victimization, local (ZCTA-level) crime rates, and perceived neighborhood safety and two outcomes: turnout (including validated turnout) and non-electoral participation. We find that direct victimization is significantly associated with more non-electoral engagement but lower turnout. The negative estimated effects of victimization on turnout exceed the magnitude of positive effects associated with common get-out-the-vote efforts. We find only limited evidence that crime rates are associated with participation. Perceived neighborhood safety is associated with higher rates of non-electoral, but not electoral, participation. Our findings offer new, comprehensive evidence on the relationship between crime exposure and political participation and illustrate the importance of distinguishing between types of exposure and forms of participation.