Digital decoupling: UK aviation productivity and carbon trends vs OECD (2010–2025)

Purpose This study evaluates the global aviation sector's transition toward sustainability by examining the relationship between Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK), carbon dioxide (CO}_2) intensity and Air Traffic Management (ATM) efficiency across all 38 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries. The research aims to determine the extent of structural decoupling within the industry over the 2010–2025 period. Design/methodology/approach The research utilizes Translog Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), panel regression analysis, dynamic Panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and UK ARDL modeling on a balanced panel of all 38 OECD member countries (N = 38, T = 16, yielding 608 country-year observations) covering 2010–2025. The methodology focuses on isolating the drivers of emissions versus the impact of technological and operational interventions. Findings The results identify a significant structural decoupling. While traffic volume remains the primary driver of fuel burn (0.029), carbon intensity has plummeted, showing a −0.98 correlation over time. Fleet modernization is the strongest decarbonization engine (0.98 correlation), while ATM improvements act as a significant countervailing force (−0.125) against emissions. However, 41% of annual fuel burn remains tied to previous operational baselines, reflecting substantial infrastructure inertia. Research limitations/implications By 2026, incremental efficiency gains face diminishing returns against RPK growth. This suggests that current evolutionary improvements are insufficient to meet long-term climate targets. Practical implications To achieve Net Zero, the industry must transition from evolutionary efficiency to revolutionary shifts. This includes the institutionalization of ATM reforms and the aggressive de-risking of the Sustainable Aviation Fuel market to effectively break the link between sector expansion and environmental impact. Originality/value This study provides a quantitative assessment of the “efficiency vs growth” paradox in aviation using a comprehensive 38-country OECD dataset, offering specific coefficients for the impact of ATM and fleet age on the global carbon footprint.