Maduro’s Long-Lasting Strength from Weakness: How Venezuela’s Dictatorship Turned Adversity into Opportunity

Abstract How did Nicolás Maduro’s autocratic regime in Venezuela survive serious problems and massive failures for 13 years? Contrary to the prevailing emphasis on the autocracy’s fragility, we explore the domestic and international foundations of its noteworthy resilience. Integrating Albert Hirschman’s framework of ‘Exit, Voice and Loyalty’ with Milan Svolik’s systematic theory of authoritarian rule, we highlight how exit via mass emigration, popular loyalty forged through conditional food aid, and elite loyalty engineered through corruption and patronage and reinforced by fears of international prosecution safeguarded Maduro’s dictatorship against domestic challenges that have toppled other autocracies worldwide. Only a US commando operation managed to oust the autocrat – yet nevertheless, the main structures of the non-democratic regime still seem to persist.